Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Pre-Family Night Packers Roster Prediction

by Justis Mosqueda

With many already predicting their teams' regular season roster, I figured I might as well give it a shot. 

For reference, here's how many players by position have made Packers opening day rosters the past three seasons:

[Offense average of ~25]
QB-6 (average of 2)
RB-9 (average of 3)
FB-5 (average of 1.7)
WR-16 (average of 5.3)
TE-13 (average of 4.3)

OL-25 (average of 8.3)

[Defense average of ~25]
DL-18 (average of 6)
LB-27 (average of 9)
DB-32 (average of 10.7)

SPT-9 (average of 3)


OFFENSE (25)
QB: Aaron Rodgers, B.J. Coleman
RB: James Starks, Eddie Lacy, Johnathan Franklin
FB: John Kuhn
WR: Jordy Nelson, James Jones, Randall Cobb, Jarrett Boykin, Charles Johnson, Jeremy Ross
TE: Jermichael Finley, Andrew Quarless, Matthew Mulligan, Ryan Taylor
OT: Bryan Bulaga, Marshall Newhouse, Derek Sherrod, David Bakhtiari
OG: Josh Sitton, TJ Lang, Don Barclay, Greg Van Roten
OC: Evan Dietrich-Smith


DEFENSE (25)
DE: Datone Jones, Ryan Pickett, C.J. Wilson, Mike Daniels, Josh Boyd
NT: B.J. Raji, Johnny Jolly
OLB: Clay Matthews, Nick Perry, Mike Neal, Nate Palmer, Dezman Moses
ILB: A.J. Hawk, Brad Jones, Terrell Manning, Robert Francois, Sam Barrington
CB: Tramon Williams,  Sam Shields, Casey Hayward, Davon House, Micah Hyde
S: Morgan Burnett, M.D. Jennings, Jerron McMillian


SPECIAL TEAMS (3)
K: Mason Crosby
P: Tim Masthay
LS: Brett Goode


IR/PUP (4)
RB DuJuan Harris
WR Sederrik Cunningham (IR)
OG J.C. Tretter (IR)
DE Jerel Worthy

CUT (32)
QB Graham Harrell
RB Alex Green
RB Angelo Pease
FB Jonathan Amosa
WR Kevin Dorsey
WR Alex Gillett
WR Omarius Hines
WR Tyrone Walker
WR Myles White
TE Brandon Bostick
TE Jake Stoneburner
TE D.J. Williams
OT Andrew Datko
OT Kevin Hughes
OG Lane Taylor
OC Garth Gerhart
OC Patrick Lewis
NT Jordan Miller
NT Gilbert Pena
OLB Andy Mulumba
OLB Jarvis Reed
OLB Donte Savage
ILB Jamari Lattimore
CB Jarrett Bush
CB Loyce Means
CB James Nixon
CB Brandon Smith
S Chris Banjo
S David Fulton
S Chaz Powell
S Sean Richardson
K Giorgio Tavecchio

Comparing the three year average (rounded) and my projection:

QB 2-2
RB 3-3
FB 2-1
WR 5-6
TE 4-4
OL 8-9

DL 6-7
LB 9-10
DB 11-8

SPT 3-3

Red designates a position with a lesser projection of players per position than average, while blue designates an above average number of players making the roster.


Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.comDraftFalcons.comPackers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

Sunday, July 21, 2013

Stephen Morris Video Scouting Report

by Justis Mosqueda

As an alternative to the video scouting report I did earlier this week, I figured I would type up notes for those of you wishing to get my opinion without sitting 10 minutes of TV tape.

DEEP BALL
-One of the best deep balls in the class.
-Vertical teams like Arizona, Cleveland, and Jacksonville should be on the lookout for him.
-Even incompletions are almost completions, rarely misses any pass by a significant amount.

TOO MANY SACKS
-Too skinny to be taking hits hits like option quarterbacks.
-Holding the onto the ball works both ways, patience also leads to big plays.

BUYS TIME
-A QB who can run, but chooses to look for the throw first.
-Underrated footwork is better than most claim it to be.
-Makes plays by moving, re-setting feet in and out of the pocket.

BALL DIES SHORT
-Passes will randomly die short on short throws.
-Happened in 3 of 5 games.

ROLLING LEFT; SIDELINE
-Again, underrated footwork.
-Russell Wilson comparisons are most likely due to height and ability to rollout/throw well to the left sideline.

TOUCH/PLACEMENT
-Knows who to throw it over/under and how to do it.

HARD COUNT
-Won the NC State game largely due to hard count, which lead to offside penalties/"Free Plays".
Morris throws the deep ball every time a free play is given to him (as every QB should).

READING/PROGRESSION
-Reads/progresses well when plays allowed to develop.

HEIGHT
-As stated earlier, height not an issue for me as much as weight, due to his release point.
-Only 2 tipped passes in 5 games.

DECISION MAKING
-Morris has confidence in himself, sometimes too much.
-Some passes might be due to system.
-Ball may not be smart balls, but the best way to throw them if you were asked to make them.

FINAL GRADE:
1st-2nd Round

SENIOR QB RANKING:
2nd

VIDEO SCOUTING REPORT:

Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.comDraftFalcons.comPackers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

Friday, July 19, 2013

Updated 2014 Quarterback Rankings: 7/19/13

by Justis Mosqueda

1. Jeff Mathews, Cornell
6032, 225
[1st round]

2. Stephen Morris, Miami
6014, 215

2. David Fales, San Jose State
[Nevada-Reno, Monterrey Peninsula, Wyoming]
6013, 220
[1st-2nd round]

4. Tajh Boyd, Clemson
6004, 225
[Day 2]

5. Zach Mettenberger, LSU
[Georgia, Butler]
6045, 230
[Late Day 2/ Early Day 3]

6. A.J. McCarron, Alabama ^1
6024, 214
[Early Day 3]

7. Derek Carr, Fresno State ^1
6026, 215
[Early Day 3]

8. Bryn Renner, North Carolina v2
6024, 225
[Day 3]

9. Aaron Murray, Georgia
6004, 212
[Day 3]

10. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech (TE/ATH)
6052, 256
[Late Day 3/PFA]


Senior Watch List:
Drew Allen, Syracuse* [Oklahoma]
Jordan Lynch, Northern Illinois
Casey Pachall, TCU

Underclassmen Watch List:
Blake Bortles, Central Florida
Teddy Bridgewater, Louisville
Devin Gardner, Michigan
Brett Hundley, UCLA +
Marcus Mariota, Oregon +
Brett Smith, Wyoming

2015 Watch List:
Bryan Bennett, SE Louisiana * [Oregon]
Brandon Bridge, South Alabama * [Alcorn State]
Cody Fajardo, Nevada
Kevin Hogan, Stanford +
Chuckie Keeton, Utah State
Johnny Manziel, Texas A&M +
Braxton Miller, Ohio State
Bryce Petty, Baylor *
Pete Thomas, North Carolina State * [Colorado State]
Clint Trickett, West Virginia * [Florida State]

The symbol (*) means the prospect is projected to be a starter for the first time at the program.
The symbol (+) means the prospect is a redshirt sophomore.
Watch lists are in alphabetical order.

Class-wide Links:

All heights and weights come from NFLDraftScout.com or are linked otherwise.

Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.comDraftFalcons.comPackers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

Class of 2014 QBs in the Redzone

by Justis Mosqueda

No matter what system you play in, the great equalizer is the redzone. Once you hit the 20, you stop caring so much about field position, and the focus goes to putting yourself into position to score within about three or so plays. I always find redzone numbers interesting, and I decided to compile the situational stats on the ten draftable quarterbacks in the 2014 class. The charts are listed game by game, then compiled in the last row.


Tajh Boyd [Clemson]

Derek Carr [Fresno St]

David Fales [San Jose St]

Jeff Mathews [Cornell]
(missing Bucknell/Columbia)

A.J. McCarron [Alabama]

Zach Mettenberger [LSU]

Stephen Morris [Miami]

Aaron Murray [Georgia]

Bryn Renner [North Carolina]

Logan Thomas [Virginia Tech]

Taking a deeper look, instead of looking at volume numbers, I broke down everyone's numbers by efficiency. The numbers I used were completion percentage (completions/pass attempts), interception percentage (interceptions/pass attempts), sack percentage (sacks/(pass attempts+sacks)), touchdown percentage (touchdowns/pass attempts), yards per attempt (passing yards/pass attempts), and yards per completion (passing yards/completions).

Interception Percentage

Sack Percentage

Touchdown Percentage

Yards Per Attempt

Yards Per Completion

Completion Percentage

Compiling the results of the efficiency stats, and giving all of them equal weight, this could be used as the rankings of the quarterbacks in the redzone:


The Mettenberger and Thomas numbers are disappointing, but the Mathews numbers were almost shocking to me. If I had to bet on why his numbers (sans YPC) are so low, I'd put a fair amount on his receiving corp. When watching him, his guys drop more balls than any non-Ebron player I've play for any of these quarterbacks. His yards per completion is good, showing that when his receivers actually catch the ball, they put up solid numbers.

Boyd's efficiency in the redzone is really astounding. Not only was he first in half the categories, and second in yards per attempt, but he was the best runner in the redzone, putting up 142 rushing yards and nine touchdowns on the ground.


Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.comDraftFalcons.comPackers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

Monday, July 15, 2013

Jeff Mathews TD vs Yale

by Justis Mosqueda

I was going through the Mathews vs Yale (2012) game on Draft Breakdown when I found a really good play by Mathews. You can't really tell in the video, but Mathews is calling an audible/hot route based on the defense's formation. There's only three players on the left side showing coverage: the corner, the safety, and the linebacker. Chances are, the linebacker can't hang with either of the receivers, which means that they will likely, or at least one for sure, be single-covered.




The slot (running a corner to the endzone) is in the linebacker's zone first. Mathews is reading the defense. All four rushers are picked up with two blockers to spare.




The slot switches to the safety's zone. The corner is near frozen (Mathews threw in a pump fake), and the linebacker is just taking up space. If the pass is thrown perfect, and the corner doesn't release deep too early, it should be a score. Again, all the rushers are taken care of.




Mathews strikes and puts it right above the corner's reach, across the opposite sideline of this throwing shoulder.




The receiver sticks the landing.























To put it into perspective, here's an opposite angle showing how tight of a hole the ball had to be thrown in.








The play is starts around 2:45 in this TV cut video.


The play starts around 9:50 in this coaches tape video.


Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.comDraftFalcons.comPackers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

Saturday, July 13, 2013

Johnny Manziel kicked out of Manning Passing Academy

by Justis Mosqueda

A couple weeks ago, I wrote an article at Optimum Scouting. The gist of it is that Manziel 1) needed to get his act together and 2) isn't going to play another three years at Texas A&M.

Late Saturday, a source at the Manning Passing Academy gave me some quotes on Manziel's weekend.

"Something kinda unbelievable, Johnny Football was asked by the Mannings to leave, hence the reason why he didn't throw. [He] slept through all the staff meetings came out to practice only once. Amazing. [He] shouldn't do that anyway but definitely not to the Manning's. I never saw him once. Heard some ladies snapped a pic of him and McCarron in the bar and it hit twitter and he wasn't happy about that."

The picture he's referring to is this one:


RumorsandRants.com also has picked up the story.


Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.comDraftFalcons.comPackers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

Friday, July 12, 2013

2014 Early Mock

by Justis Mosqueda

I'm going to host a GM mock on Twitter under the hashtag #2014EarlyMock. It will be five rounds and the order will be determined by Vegas odds. If you are interested in signing up, hit me up at twitter.com/justismosqueda

Order:

1 Jacksonville Jaguars (GM)
2 Oakland Raiders (GM)
3 Buffalo Bills (GM)
4 Arizona Cardinals (GM)
5 Tennessee Titans (GM)
6 New York Jets (GM)
7 Cleveland Browns (GM)
8 Carolina Panthers (GM)
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (GM)
10 San Diego Chargers (GM)
11 Kansas City Chiefs (GM)
12 St. Louis Rams (GM)
13 Minnesota Vikings (GM)
14 Miami Dolphins (GM)
15 Indianapolis Colts (GM)
16 Detroit Lions (GM)
17 Washington Redskins (GM)
18 Philadelphia Eagles (GM)
19 Dallas Cowboys (GM)
20 Cincinnati Bengals (GM)
21 Chicago Bears (GM)
22 Pittsburgh Steelers (GM)
23 New York Giants (GM)
24 Baltimore Ravens (GM)
25 New Orleans Saints (GM)
26 Houston Texans (GM)
27 Atlanta Falcons (GM)
28 Green Bay Packers (GM)
29 Seattle Seahawks (GM)
30 New England Patriots (GM)
31 Denver Broncos (GM)
32 San Francisco 49ers (GM)

Rules:
1) True juniors can only be selected in the top three rounds.
2) Redshirt sophomores can only be selected in the top two rounds.
3) Redshirt juniors and seniors can be selected in all four rounds.
4) If a pick has been on the clock for more than 16 hours, there will be a vote to have a player assigned to said team.
5) You may trade 5th, 6th, 7th, players, and 2015 picks in the mock.

ROUND 1
1 Jacksonville Jaguars (GM) Teddy Bridgewater QB Louisville
2 Oakland Raiders (GM) Jadeveon Clowney DE South Carolina
3 Buffalo Bills (GM) Marqise Lee WR USC
4 Arizona Cardinals (GM) Taylor Lewan OT Michigan
5 Tennessee Titans (GM) Bradley Roby CB Ohio State
6 New York Jets (GM) Anthony Barr OLB UCLA
7 Cleveland Browns (GM) Aaron Lynch DE USF
8 Detroit Lions (GM) Jake Matthews OT Texas A&M
9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (GM) C.J. Mosley LB Alabama
10 San Diego Chargers (GM) Louis Nix DT Notre Dame
11 Kansas City Chiefs (GM) Sammy Watkins WR Clemson
12 St. Louis Rams (GM) Ryan Shazier LB Ohio State
13 Minnesota Vikings (GM) David Fales QB San Jose State
14 Miami Dolphins (GM) Stephon Tuitt DT Notre Dame
15 Indianapolis Colts (GM) Jordan Matthews WR Vanderbilt
16 Carolina Panthers (GM) Ifo Ekpre-Olomu CB Oregon
17 St. Louis Rams (GM) Cyril Richardson OG Baylor
18 Philadelphia Eagles (GM) Jason Verrett CB TCU
19 Dallas Cowboys (GM) Cyrus Kouandjio OT Alabama
20 Cleveland Browns (GM) Ha Ha Clinton-Dix S Alabama
21 Chicago Bears (GM) Gabe Jackson OG Mississippi State
22 Pittsburgh Steelers (GM) Timmy Jernigan DT Florida State
23 New York Giants (GM) Kyle Van Noy OLB BYU
24 Baltimore Ravens (GM) Colt Lyerla TE Oregon
25 New Orleans Saints (GM) Trent Murphy OLB Stanford
26 Houston Texans (GM) Tajh Boyd QB Clemson
27 Atlanta Falcons (GM) Will Sutton DT Arizona State
28 Green Bay Packers (GM) Ra'Shede Hageman DT Minnesota
29 Seattle Seahawks (GM) Demarcus Lawrence DE Boise State
30 New England Patriots (GM) Anthony Johnson DT LSU
31 Denver Broncos (GM) Jemea Thomas CB Georgia Tech
32 San Francisco 49ers (GM) Loucheiz Purifoy CB Florida

ROUND 2
33 Jacksonville Jaguars (GM) Morgan Breslin DE USC
34 Oakland Raiders (GM) Marcus Mariota QB Oregon
35 Buffalo Bills (GM) Antonio Richardson OT Tennessee
36 Arizona Cardinals (GM) Adrian Hubbard OLB Alabama
37 Tennessee Titans (GM) A.J. McCarron QB Alabama
38 New York Jets (GM) Austin Seferian-Jenkins TE Washington
39 Cincinnati Bengals (GM) Jeremiah Attaochu OLB Georgia Tech
40 Carolina Panthers (GM) Donte Moncrief WR Ole Miss
41 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (GM) Christian Jones OLB Florida State
42 San Diego Chargers (GM) Bene Benwikere CB San Jose State
43 Kansas City Chiefs (GM) Ty Zimmerman S Kansas State
44 St. Louis Rams (GM) De'Anthony Thomas RB Oregon
45 Minnesota Vikings (GM) Daniel McCullers DT Tennessee
46 Miami Dolphins (GM) James Hurst OT North Carolina
47 Baltimore Ravens (GM) Brandon Coleman WR Rutgers
48 Carolina Panthers (GM) Cody Hoffman WR BYU
49 Chicago Bears (GM) A.J. Johnson ILB Tennessee
50 Philadelphia Eagles (GM) Dominique Easley DE Florida
51 Dallas Cowboys (GM) Deandre Coleman DT California
52 Cincinnati Bengals (GM) Scott Crichton DE Oregon State 
53 Washington Redskins (GM) Cameron Irving OT Florida State
54 Pittsburgh Steelers (GM) Marcus Roberson CB Florida
55 New York Giants (GM) Kareem Martin DE North Carolina
56 New England Patriots (GM) C.J. Fiedorowicz TE Iowa
57 New Orleans Saints (GM) Eric Ebron TE North Carolina
58 Houston Texans (GM) Trey Depriest LB Alabama
59 Atlanta Falcons (GM) George Uko DT USC
60 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (GM) Jeff Mathews QB Cornell
61 Green Bay Packers (GM) Khalil Mack OLB Buffalo
62  New York Jets (GM) David Yankey OG Stanford
63 Denver Broncos (GM) Cornelius Lucas OT Kansas State
64 San Francisco 49ers (GM) Davante Adams WR Fresno State

ROUND 3
65 Jacksonville Jaguars (GM) Bishop Sankey RB Washington
66 Baltimore Ravens (GM) Andrew Jackson ILB Western Kentucky
67 Buffalo Bills (GM) Antone Exum CB Virginia Tech
68 Arizona Cardinals (GM) Stephen Morris QB Miami
69  Baltimore Ravens (GM) James Wilder RB Florida State
70 Indianapolis Colts (GM) Travis Swanson C Arkansas
71 Cleveland Browns (GM) Seantrel Henderson OT Miami
72 Detroit Lions (GM) Ronald Powell DE Florida
73 New York Jets (GM) Lamarcus Joyner DB Florida State
74 San Diego Chargers (GM) Kenny Ladler S Vanderbilt
75 Indianapolis Colts (GM) Henry Anderson DE Stanford
76 St. Louis Rams (GM) Craig Loston S LSU
77 Minnesota Vikings (GM) Yawin Smallwood LB UConn
78 Miami Dolphins (GM) Aaron Colvin CB Oklahoma
79 Indianapolis Colts (GM) Lache Seastrunk RB Baylor
80 Oakland Raiders (GM) Cassius Marsh DL UCLA
81 New Orleans Saints (GM) Darqueze Dennard CB Michigan State
82 New England Patriots (GM) Xavier Su'a Filo OG UCLA
83 Dallas Cowboys (GM) Ben Gardner DE Stanford
84 Seattle Seahawks (GM) Arthur Lynch TE Georgia
85 Green Bay Packers (GM) Kasen Williams WR Washington
86 Cleveland Browns (GM) Ed Stinson DE Alabama
87 New York Giants (GM) Dri Archer OW Kent State
88 Carolina Panthers (GM) CJ Barnett S Ohio State
89 Washington Redskins (GM) Greg Blair ILB Cincinnati
90 Oakland Raiders (GM) Odell Beckham JR WR LSU
91 Atlanta Falcons (GM) Shane Skov MLB Stanford
92 San Francisco 49ers (GM) Sean Parker S Washington
93 Minnesota Vikings (GM) Jackson Jeffcoat DE Texas
94 Philadelphia Eagles (GM) Chris Borland ILB Wisconsin
95 Cleveland Browns (GM) Jace Amaro TE Texas Tech
96 Miami Dolphins (GM) Danny Shelton DT Washington

ROUND 4
97 Jacksonville Jaguars (GM) Justin Gilbert CB Oklahoma State
98 Houston Texans (GM) Xavier Grimble TE USC
99 Buffalo Bills (GM) Zack Martin T Notre Dame
100 Arizona Cardinals (GM) Tre Boston S North Carolina
101 Tennessee Titans (GM) Ed Reynolds S Stanford
102 Atlanta Falcons (GM) Jalen Saunders WR Oklahoma
103 Denver Broncos (GM) Michael Campanero WR Wake Forest
104 Carolina Panthers (GM) JuWuan James OT Tennessee
105 Green Bay Packers (GM) Jack Mewhort OT Ohio State
106 San Diego Chargers (GM) Carl Bradford OLB Arizona State
107 St. Louis Rams (GM) Kony Ealy DT Missouri
108 St. Louis Rams (GM) Zach Mettenberger QB LSU
109 Minnesota Vikings (GM) Devin Street WR Pittsburgh
110 Green Bay Packers (GM) Ahmad Dixon S Baylor
111 San Francisco 49ers (GM) Bryan Stork C Florida
112 Detroit Lions (GM) Calvin Barnett DT Oklahoma State
113 Chicago Bears (GM) Ryan Grant WR Tulane
114 Philadelphia Eagles (GM) Austin Hill WR Arizona
115 Dallas Cowboys (GM) Chaz Sutton DE South Carolina
116 Cincinnati Bengals (GM) Silas Redd RB USC
117 Chicago Bears (GM) Bryn Renner QB North Carolina
118 Pittsburgh Steelers (GM)
119 New York Giants (GM
120 San Francisco 49ers (GM)
121 Washington Redskins (GM)
122 Houston Texans (GM)
123 Indianapolis Colts (GM)
124 Seattle Seahawks (GM)
125 Seattle Seahawks (GM)
126 Philadelphia Eagles (GM)
127 Denver Broncos (GM)
128 Miami Dolphins (GM)

Day 3/Future Picks/Player Trades:
Tampa Bay 5th->Seattle
Tampa Bay 6th-> Seattle
Washington 5th->Seattle
Green Bay 5th->Seattle
Green Bay 6th->Seattle
Patriots 5th-> Indianapolis
Green Bay 7th-> Washington
Tampa Bay 2015 2nd->Miami
New England 2015 7th->Indianapolis
Mason Foster-> Washington
Jabaal Sheard-> Cincinnati
Arthur Jones-> Indianapolis
Jon Beason-> Cincinnati
New York J 2015 5th-> Indianapolis
Bernard Pierce->Oakland
Baltimore 5th->San Francisco
Baltimore 7th-> San Francisco
Baltimore 2015 2nd-> San Francisco
Indianapolis 5th-> San Francisco
Indianapolis 6th-> San Fransisco
Indianpolis 2015 3rd->San Francisco
Oakland 5th-> Carolina
Washington 6th->New Orleans
Brandon Browner->Carolina
Philadelphia 2015 5th->New England
Philadelphia 5th->New England
Desean Jackson->New York Jets
New York Jets 2015 2nd->Philadelphia
New York Jets 2015 4th->Philadelphia
Miami 2015 1st->Green Bay
Green Bay 2015 6th->Miami
Miami 2015 3rd->San Francisco
Cleveland 6th->Miami
Oakland 6th->Houston
Atlanta 5th->Indianapolis

Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.comDraftFalcons.comPackers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

Wednesday, July 10, 2013

Jeff Mathews in the Redzone

by Justis Mosqueda

After looking into David Fales's numbers in the redzone, I decided I'm going to do the same for every major college quarterback. Next up is Jeff Mathews, my number one rated QB in the 2014 class. Unfortunately, I was unable to gather a complete season of data for Mathews. I was unable to find the play by play sheets for the Cornell/Bucknell and the Cornell/Columbia games. If anyone is able to find them, I'd be glad to include them in the data. Let me know by sending me a tweet.


While Mathews plays a sub-division lower than David Fales, he had "worse" numbers in very single category. That might not be so much of a knock on Mathews and it's a pat on the back for Fales.


Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.comDraftFalcons.comPackers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

David Fales in the Redzone

by Justis Mosqueda

One things consistently asked about quarterbacks is how they perform in the redzone (20 yards or closer to their opponent's endzone.) After my write up on David Fales, I decided to look a little deeper into his specifics. Instead of looking at entire games, I focused on him in the redzone. Below are David Fales's game-by-game-stats within 20 yards of pay dirt.


Fales didn't see a snap in the redzone against Stanford, although he did throw two strikes for touchdowns from the 21, but after that, he threw at least one ball in each game the rest of the season. I didn't count the UC-Davis game's stats because they play FCS ball, and I just wanted to look at FBS opponents. His touchdown:interception ratio of 17:1 is pretty crazy.

David Fales 2012 redzone stats: 28 of 47 for 277 yards, 17 touchdowns, 1 interception, 3 sacks, and 1 rush attempt for 4 yards.

While some think that Fales will have a stat drop, due to San Jose State moving from the WAC to the Mountain West, he still put up 10 of 19 for 92 yards, 7 touchdowns, 3 sacks, and 1 rush for 4 yards against the five teams (Stanford, Colorado State, San Diego State, Navy, and Utah State) which he faced in 2012, and will face in 2013.

You can check out David Fales in the redzone with these videos from the DraftBreakdown.com crew, here.


Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.comDraftFalcons.comPackers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

2013 Quarterback Duels

by Justis Mosqueda

I compiled a list of the 18 quarterbacks I feel would be draftable if they declared in the 2013 draft. In an effort to ready myself for the 2013 season, I also compiled a list of games in which they face each-other (quarterback duel). October and November will be fun, but the first month and a half will be slow. October 26th will be very interesting for the underclassmen/west coast quarterback stock market. Some, like Braxton Miller and Devin Gardner, only play in one "quarterback duel" this year. Others, like A.J. McCarron, play a multitude of games, not including possible SEC Championship games and a bowl.

Seniors:
David Fales [San Jose State]
Stephen Morris [Miami]
Tajh Boyd [Clemson]
Zach Mettenberger [LSU]
Derek Carr [Fresno State]
A.J. McCarron [Alabama]
Bryn Renner [North Carolina]
Aaron Murray [Georgia]
Logan Thomas [Virginia Tech]

Juniors:
Teddy Bridgewater [Louisville]
Brett Smith [Wyoming]
Devin Gardner [Michigan]
Blake Bortles [UCF]
Braxton Miller [Ohio State]

Sophomores:
Marcus Mariota [Oregon]
Brett Hundley [UCLA]
Johnny "Football" Manziel [Texas A&M]
Kevin Hogan [Stanford]

August
8/31 Georgia (Aaron Murray) vs Clemson (Tajh Boyd)
8/31 Alabama (A.J. McCarron) vs Virginia Tech (Logan Thomas)

September
9/7 San Jose State (David Fales) vs Stanford (Kevin Hogan)
9/14 Alabama (A.J. McCarron) vs Texas A&M (Johnny Manziel)
9/28 LSU (Zach Mettenberger) vs Georgia (Aaron Murray)

October
10/5 North Carolina (Bryn Renner) vs Virginia Tech (Logan Thomas)
10/17 Miami (Stephen Morris) vs North Carolina (Bryn Renner)
10/18 UCF (Blake Bortles) vs Louisville (Teddy Bridgewater)
10/19 UCLA (Brett Hundley) vs Stanford (Kevin Hogan)
10/26 Wyoming (Brett Smith) vs San Jose State (David Fales)
10/26 Oregon (Marcus Mariota) vs UCLA (Brett Hundley)

November
11/7 Oregon (Marcus Mariota) vs Stanford (Kevin Hogan)
11/9 Virginia Tech (Logan Thomas) vs Miami (Stephen Morris)
11/9 Fresno State (Derek Carr) vs Wyoming (Brett Smith)
11/9 LSU (Zach Mettenberger) vs Alabama (A.J. McCarron)
11/23 Texas A&M (Johnny Manziel) vs LSU (Zach Mettenberger)
11/29 Fresno State (Derek Carr) vs San Jose State (David Fales)
11/30 Ohio State (Braxton Miller) vs Michigan (Devin Gardner)

Others to watch:
Drew Allen [Syracuse-Oklahoma transfer]
Jordan Lynch [Northern Illinois]
Pete Thomas [North Carolina State-Colorado State transfer]*
Chuckie Keeton [Utah State]*
Jameis Winston [Florida State]***

Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.comDraftFalcons.comPackers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

Satellite Footage: Green Bay vs Houston

by Justis Mosqueda

I'd never seen satellite footage, until someone sent me a link to these videos yesterday. Think of it as a Madden angle instead of true coaches film. I have Game Rewind, but these are useful for people who aren't willing to dish out half a bill to see a game from a different angle. The channel also has the New Orleans/Denver game satellite footage.





Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.comDraftFalcons.comPackers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

Friday, July 5, 2013

Cam Newton/Carolina Panthers Rant

by Justis Mosqueda

"Cam Newton dropped off as a passer his sophomore season."

This isn't factually true at all. After having what most consider the greatest rookie season for a quarterback, many think he dropped off, due to raw box score scouting. Here's a look how he scored in 2011 and 2012 in the five most important quarterback stats:

Completion Percentage
2011: 60.0%

2012: 57.7%
Difference: -2.3%



Touchdown Percentage

2011: 4.1%
2012: 3.9%
Difference: -0.2%

Interception Percentage
2011: 3.3%
2012: 2.5%
Difference: -0.8%

Yards Per Pass
2011: 7.84
2012: 7.98
Difference: +0.14

Yards Per Completion

2011: 13.07
2012: 13.82


Difference: +0.75

He actually improved in three of the five areas, with one of the "declines" by only 0.2%, basically equal.

"Teams figured out Cam Newton as a runner."

That's no true, either. The fact is, he went from the third rusher on the Panthers in 2011 to the leading rusher in 2012.

2011-
DeAngelo Williams 155 carries, 836 yards, 7 touchdowns
Jonathan Stewart 142 carries, 761 yards, 4 touchdowns
Cam Newton 126 carries, 706 yards, 14 touchdowns
Steve Smith 6 carries, 56 yards

2012-
Cam Newton 127 carries, 741 yards, 8 touchdowns
DeAngelo Williams 173 carries, 737 yards, 5 touchdowns
Jonathan Stewart 93 carries, 336 yards, 1 touchdown
Mike Tolbert 54 carries 183 yards, 7 touchdowns

Now, his touchdowns dropped from 14 to 8, but in 2011 there was really no power back for the Panthers. With the addition of Tolbert in 2012, they combined for 15 touchdowns, 1 more than Cam Newton's 2011 total. Carolina just decided they would rather have a true power back most of the goal line snaps and "steal" touchdowns from Newton, instead of having their future smash into defensive linemen.

By the way, he is their future. He's their present. He's their everything. Since Newton, only three of the Panthers nineteen picks have been spent on offensive skill players. None of them were picked inside the top 100:

2012 4th round 104th overall Joe Adams Arkansas
2011 5th round 132nd overall Kealoha Pilares WR Hawaii
2013 6th round 182nd overall Kenjon Barner RB Oregon

To put that into perspective, the Panthers have used 15.78% of their picks on offensive skill players post-Newton, their past two seasons they've ended with 26.92% and 24.52% of their roster as non-quarterback offensive skill players. The Panthers draft picks in that part of their roster aren't representative of their roster overall.

Plus, it's not like they've stocked up on great skill players in the past, and that's why they haven't used the picks on them. Check out Carolina's leading receivers since Cam's been on the team:

2011-
Steve Smith 79 receptions, 1,394 yards, 7 touchdowns
Greg Olsen 45 receptions, 540 yards, 5 touchdowns
Legedu Naanee 44 receptions, 467, 1 touchdown [now out of the league]
Brandon LaFell 36 receptions, 613 yards, 3 touchdowns

2012-
Steve Smith 73 receptions, 1,174 yards, 4 touchdowns
Greg Olsen 69 receptions, 843 yards, 5 touchdowns
Brandon LaFell 44 receptions, 677 yards, 4 touchdowns
Mike Tolbert 27 receptions, 39 yards

Everything Cam Newton has done, he's earned. In the two years before Cam Newton, Steve Smith average 56 receptions, 768 yards, and 5 touchdowns. In the two years with Newton, Smith's averaged 76 receptions, 1,284 yards, and 6 touchdowns. That's an increase of 20 receptions, 516 yards, and a touchdown for a receiver who was 32 when Cam joined the team. His number two receiver targets in the past two years could be in the running for the worst number twos in the league. Legedu Naanee (Carolina's number two receiver in 2011) isn't even the league anymore.

"Carolina isn't good. They can't win close games. Look at their secondary, they'd have to win a shootout."

My take on close games may be different than most, but the fact is that Carolina would have been 14-2, had they won all their games they were within 6 points of. Newton is almost single-handedly keeping games within reach. While Carolina's DB's are an issue, defensive tackle was their biggest "need" in the draft. Terrell McClain and Sione Fua (3rd round DT's) came in with Newton in the 2011 class, but never showed much promise. They addressed the position early and often with Star Lotulelei and Kawann Short in 2013. Lotulelei was considered the best defensive prospect in the draft until his health issue at the combine, and many pegged Short as a first round talent since 2012.

Either way, Carolina address a huge need, improved their front seven drastically through the draft, and Newton's shown the ability to at least keep games close, all on his own back. If you can keep it close, you have a chance to win. That goes for any team.

Currently, Carolina's over/under is at 7 wins, they have the lowest odds to win the NFC South, and they have the second lowest odds to make the Super Bowl from the NFC (behind only Arizona.) I would take all of those odds. Using a close game theory, 12 of 13 teams have improved their record, if they qualified. Carolina was the only qualifying team in 2012 for that theory. They won 7 games. Assuming the theory is correct, there's a 92% chance that Carolina improves their record in 2013.

Vegas, and the football community as a whole, isn't respecting the Panthers enough.


Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.comDraftFalcons.comPackers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda