by Justis Mosqueda
The results include the win record of the formula and Vegas favorites. The numbers to the left of the team is their "value" in the formula. Think of their value as a power ranking number. Next comes the score of the game, followed by the value gap between the two teams. They are sorted by value gap inside their time slot for each specific week. Games in red are games "lost" by the formula. Games in blue are "won" by the formula. Games in bold are games in which the formula and Vegas differ. (ex: If a game is red and bold, Vegas has it counted as a win, but the formula counts it as a loss.)
Week 5 (Formula: 9-5) (Vegas Favorite: 10-4)
For the past two season, I've been working on a formula to predict winners of NFL games. After finding success last season, I refined the formula. Without giving away too much, I will say that the formula does include Decisive Losses, Decisive Wins, and Close Game (Here's my "2012 Underrated/Overrated" article which explains what the terms mean.)
Below are the results of formula in 2012. The one problem I've found with the formula, is it needs four weeks of data to perform well. What that means, is that the earliest you can really test it is Week 5, although, the data significantly goes up after Week 8, based on a sample size of five years.
The results include the win record of the formula and Vegas favorites. The numbers to the left of the team is their "value" in the formula. Think of their value as a power ranking number. Next comes the score of the game, followed by the value gap between the two teams. They are sorted by value gap inside their time slot for each specific week. Games in red are games "lost" by the formula. Games in blue are "won" by the formula. Games in bold are games in which the formula and Vegas differ. (ex: If a game is red and bold, Vegas has it counted as a win, but the formula counts it as a loss.)
Week 5 (Formula: 9-5) (Vegas Favorite: 10-4)
Thursday
Arizona (98.19) St. Louis (46.49) 3-17 [51.70]
Early
Baltimore (86.05) Kansas City (15.51) 9-6 [70.54]
Atlanta (94.94) Washington (50.17) 24-17 [44.77]
Cleveland (19.27) New York Giants (53.80) 27-41 [34.53]
Green Bay (79.14) Indianapolis (50.97) 27-30 [28.17]
Miami (53.87) Cincinnati (64.96) 17-13 [11.09]
Philadelphia (45.84) Pittsburgh (49.37) 14-16 [3.53]
Late
Buffalo (32.64) San Francisco (81.16) 3-45 [48.52]
Tennessee (21.83) Minnesota (65.81) 7-30 [43.98]
Denver (113.83) New England (71.74) 21-31 [42.09]
Chicago (79.41) Jacksonville (48.26) 41-3 [31.15]
Seattle (75.78) Carolina (62.83) 16-12 [12.95]
Night
San Diego (37.37) New Orleans (22.02) 24-31 [15.35]
Monday
Houston (64.15) New York Jets (51.51) 23-17 [12.64]
Week 6 (Formula: 6-8) (Vegas Favorites: 5-9)
Thursday
Pittsburgh (41.54) Tennessee (16.43) 23-26 [25.11]
Pittsburgh (41.54) Tennessee (16.43) 23-26 [25.11]
Early
Oakland (16.97) Atlanta (87.69) 20-23 [70.72]
Cincinnati (52.10) Cleveland (13.95) 24-34 [38.15]
Kansas City (28.74) Tampa Bay (45.66) 10-38 [16.92]
Detroit (36.18) Philadelphia (42.40) 26-23 (OT) [6.22]
Indianapolis (55.80) New York Jets (61.45) 9-35 [5.65]
St. Louis (63.27) Miami (58.24) 14-17 [5.03]
Dallas (59.58) Baltimore (62.74) 29-31 [3.16]
Late
New York Giants (64.52) San Francisco (96.80) 26-3 [32.28]
Buffalo (51.54) Arizona (77.69) 19-16 (OT) [26.15]
New England (92.98) Seattle (79.85) 23-24 [13.13]
Minnesota (54.60) Washington (51.47) 26-38 [3.13]
Night
Green Bay (71.48) Houston (69.77) 42-24 [1.71]
Monday
Denver (87.86) San Diego (32.97) 35-24 [54.89]
Week 7 (Formula: 6-7) (Vegas Favorites: 11-2)
Thursday
Seattle (94.23) San Francisco (89.75) 6-13 [4.48]
Early
Tennessee (22.49) Buffalo (49.71) 35-24 [27.22]
Green Bay (88.43) St. Louis (66.01) 30-20 [22.42]
Arizona (66.66) Minnesota (48.06) 14-21 [18.60]
Washington (68.90) New York Giants (87.28) 23-27 [18.38]
New Orleans (42.75) Tampa Bay (58.75) 35-28 [16.00]
Baltimore (61.32) Houston (68.87) 13-43 [7.55]
Cleveland (35.56) Indianapolis (41.81) 13-17 [6.25]
Dallas (75.33) Carolina (78.75) 19-14 [3.42]
Late
New York Jets (67.51) New England (85.71) 26-29 (OT) [18.20]
Jacksonville (33.63) Oakland (31.30) 23-26 (OT) [2.33]
Night
Pittsburgh (45.24) Cincinnati (48.17) 24-17 [2.93]
Monday
Detroit (36.23) Chicago (73.00) 7-13 [36.77]
Week 8 (Formula: 8-6) (Vegas Favorites: 8-6)
Thursday
Tampa Bay (46.91) Minnesota (61.36) 36-17 [14.45]
Early
Jacksonville (31.18) Green Bay (99.57) 15-24 [68.39]
Seattle (80.58) Detroit (43.26) 24-28 [37.32]
Atlanta (75.18) Philadelphia (46.84) 30-17 [28.34]
New England (83.83) St. Louis (59.30) 45-7 [24.53]
Miami (55.61) New York Jets (77.26) 30-9 [21.65]
Washington (75.18) Pittsburgh (55.52) 12-27 [19.66]
San Diego (45.72) Cleveland (32.01) 6-7 [13.71]
Carolina (78.03) Chicago (65.52) 22-23 [12.51]
Indianapolis (41.75) Tennessee (29.92) 19-13 (OT) [11.83]
Late
Oakland (37.04) Kansas City (22.13) 26-16 [14.91]
New York Giants (83.20) Dallas (68.42) 29-24 [14.78]
Night
New Orleans (54.77) Denver (117.59) 14-34 [62.82]
Monday
San Francisco (98.07) Arizona (54.25) 24-3 [43.82]
Week 9 (Formula: 11-3) (Vegas Favorites: 10-4)
Thursday
Kansas City (16.92) San Diego (46.43) 13-31 [29.51]
Early
Denver (119.65) Cincinnati (46.27) 31-23 [73.38]
Buffalo (40.71) Houston (91.62) 9-21 [50.91]
Arizona (53.22) Green Bay (87.35) 17-31 [34.13]
Chicago (66.67) Tennessee (34.26) 51-20 [32.41]
Miami (62.94) Indianapolis (37.22) 20-23 [25.72]
Baltimore (58.67) Cleveland (34.34) 25-15 [24.33]
Carolina (79.46) Washington (64.21) 21-13 [15.25]
Detroit (45.14) Jacksonville (31.47) 31-14 [13.67]
Late
Minnesota (51.14) Seattle (76.99) 20-30 [25.85]
Pittsburgh (63.15) New York Giants (79.74) 24-20 [16.59]
Tampa Bay (54.64) Oakland (44.63) 42-32 [10.01]
Night
Dallas (80.36) Atlanta (78.75) 13-19 [1.61]
Monday
Philadelphia (46.78) New Orleans (59.37) 13-28 [12.59]
Week 10 (Formula: 10-3-1) (Vegas Favorites: 8-5-1)
Thursday
Indianapolis (38.80) Jacksonville (25.65) 27-10 [13.15]
Early
Buffalo (39.96) New England (84.60) 31-37 [44.64]
New York Giants (82.95) Cincinnati (45.46) 13-31 [37.49]
Denver (117.07) Carolina (91.71) 36-14 [25.36]
Tennessee (33.33) Miami (56.91) 37-3 [23.58]
Oakland (38.23) Baltimore (55.79) 20-55 [17.56]
San Diego (42.34) Tampa Bay (57.99) 24-34 [15.65]
Atlanta (75.55) New Orleans (63.78) 27-31 [11.77]
Detroit (46.27) Minnesota (51.62) 24-34 [5.35]
Late
St. Louis (54.31) San Francisco (96.21) 24-24 (OT) [41.90]
Dallas (79.87) Philadelphia (38.63) 38-23 [41.24]
New York Jets (69.79) Seattle (82.64) 7-28 [12.85]
Night
Houston (90.44) Chicago (73.38) 13-6 [17.06]
Monday
Kansas City (15.08) Pittsburgh (64.04) 13-16 (OT) [48.96]
Week 11 (Formula: 13-1) (Vegas Favorites: 13-1)
Thursday
Miami (45.16) Buffalo (46.07) 14-19 [0.91]
Early
Jacksonville (22.00) Houston (92.69) 37-43 (OT) [70.69]
Cleveland (32.07) Dallas (81.27) 20-23 (OT) [49.20]
Green Bay (92.40) Detroit (43.85) 24-20 [48.55]
Cincinnati (53.98) Kansas City (21.01) 28-6 [32.97]
Tampa Bay (62.86) Carolina (89.65) 27-21 (OT) [26.79]
Arizona (48.70) Atlanta (72.49) 19-23 [23.79]
Philadelphia (34.57) Washington (58.04) 6-31 [23.47]
New York Jets (60.82) St. Louis (59.99) 27-13 [0.83]
Late
San Diego (43.85) Denver (116.75) 23-30 [72.90]
Indianapolis (41.25) New England (85.42) 24-59 [44.17]
New Orleans (65.90) Oakland (34.81) 38-17 [31.09]
Night
Baltimore (57.43) Pittsburgh (56.80) 13-10 [0.63]
Monday
Chicago (70.54) San Francisco (89.92) 7-32 [19.38]
Week 12 (Formula: 10-6) (Vegas Favorites: 11-5)
Thursday
Houston (80.22) Detroit (48.59) 34-31 (OT)
Washington (60.69) Dallas (71.24) 38-31
New England (85.35) New York Jets (65.75) 49-19
Early
Pittsburgh (60.62) Cleveland (34.55) 14-20
Denver (114.86) Kansas City (18.60) 17-9
Oakland (31.51) Cincinnati (56.49) 10-34
Buffalo (48.56) Indianapolis (40.62) 13-20
Tennessee (40.66) Jacksonville (26.34) 19-24
Minnesota (62.23) Chicago (69.45) 10-28
Atlanta (67.16) Tampa Bay (64.46) 24-23
Seattle (86.64) Miami (43.28) 21-24
Late
San Francisco (94.50) New Orleans (64.94) 31-21
St. Louis (55.24) Arizona (51.36) 21-17
Baltimore (59.14) San Diego (47.02) 16-13 (OT)
Night
Green Bay (88.34) New York Giants (75.72) 38-10
Monday
Carolina (89.14) Philadelphia (31.08) 30-22
Week 13 (Formula: 11-5) (Vegas Favorites: 9-7)
Thursday
New Orleans (64.63) Atlanta (66.30) 13-23 [1.67]
Early
New England (84.50) Miami (47.87) 23-16 [36.63]
Indianapolis (45.61) Detroit (52.58) 35-33 [6.97]
Houston (75.12) Tennessee (39.31) 24-10 [35.81]
Jacksonville (28.61) Buffalo (43.39) 18-34 [14.78]
Minnesota (61.72) Green Bay (82.86) 14-23 [21.14]
Seattle (82.62) Chicago (78.93) 23-17 (OT) [3.69]
Arizona (45.04) New York Jets (65.49) 6-7 [20.45]
San Francisco (96.62) St. Louis (58.59) 13-16 (OT) [38.03]
Carolina (86.98) Kansas City (18.39) 21-27 [68.59]
Late
Pittsburgh (57.34) Baltimore (59.47) 23-20 [2.13]
Cincinnati (57.42) San Diego (50.29) 20-13 [7.13]
Cleveland (39.71) Oakland (28.62) 20-17 [11.09]
Tampa Bay (66.61) Denver (103.67) 23-31 [37.06]
Night
Philadelphia (29.03) Dallas (66.33) 33-38 [37.30]
Monday
New York Giants (85.21) Washington (66.60) 16-17 [18.61]
Week 14 (Formula: 13-3) (Vegas Favorites: 10-6)
Thursday
Denver (106.55) Oakland (29.65) 26-13 [76.90]
Early
New York Jets (63.71) Jacksonville (25.63) 17-10 [38.08]
Philadelphia (31.44) Tampa Bay (67.95) 23-21 [36.51]
Chicago (78.13) Minnesota (58.62) 14-21 [19.51]
St. Louis (64.14) Buffalo (45.99) 15-13 [18.15]
Kansas City (22.83) Cleveland (38.58) 7-30 [15.75]
Tennessee (37.95) Indianapolis (45.03) 23-27 [7.08]
Atlanta (68.39) Carolina (75.15) 20-30 [6.76]
Baltimore (62.30) Washington (68.86) 28-31 (OT) [6.56]
San Diego (47.90) Pittsburgh (61.47) 34-24 [13.57]
Dallas (61.20) Cincinnati (60.70) 20-19 [0.50]
Late
Miami (53.17) San Francisco (94.73) 13-27 [41.56]
Arizona (48.08) Seattle (85.69) 0-58 [37.61]
New Orleans (62.40) New York Giants (85.33) 27-52 [22.93]
Night
Detroit (52.60) Green Bay (85.76) 20-27 [33.16]
Monday
Houston (72.29) New England (91.31) 14-42 [19.02]
Week 15 (Formula: 11-5) (Vegas Favorites: 9-7)
Thursday
Cincinnati (61.63) Philadelphia (33.86) 34-13 [27.77]
Early
Denver (98.86) Baltimore (64.08) 34-17 [34.78]
Indianapolis (44.06) Houston (74.50) 17-28 [30.44]
Jacksonville (23.05) Miami (53.37) 3-24 [30.32]
Washington (70.98) Cleveland (40.89) 38-21 [30.09]
New York Giants (88.11) Atlanta (66.16) 0-34 [21.95]
Green Bay (84.23) Chicago (74.55) 21-13 [9.68]
Tampa Bay (64.63) New Orleans (60.02) 0-41 [4.61]
Minnesota (63.71) St. Louis (62.76) 36-22 [0.95]
Late
Seattle (84.48) Buffalo (46.34) 50-17 [38.14]
Carolina (80.36) San Diego (52.96) 31-7 [27.40]
Kansas City (20.18) Oakland (29.86) 0-15 [9.68]
Pittsburgh (57.10) Dallas (61.84) 24-27 (OT) [4.74]
Detroit (50.77) Arizona (46.45) 10-38 [4.32]
Night
San Francisco (94.97) New England (98.59) 41-34 [3.62]
Monday
New York Jets (63.12) Tennessee (36.24) 10-14 [26.88]
Week 16 (Formula: 11-5) (Vegas Favorites: 10-6)
Saturday
Atlanta (77.38) Detroit (46.22) 31-18 [31.16]
Early
New England (98.93) Jacksonville (20.96) 23-16 [77.97]
Oakland (33.17) Carolina (84.04) 6-17 [50.87]
Tennessee (37.50) Green Bay (87.19) 7-55 [49.69]
Washington (72.01) Philadelphia (32.52) 27-20 [39.49]
Indianapolis (42.26) Kansas City (17.68) 20-13 [24.58]
Buffalo (45.23) Miami (53.90) 10-24 [8.67]
Minnesota (64.70) Houston (72.95) 23-6 [8.25]
San Diego (52.13) New York Jets (60.04) 27-17 [7.91]
New Orleans (68.48) Dallas (63.69) 34-31 (OT) [4.79]
St. Louis (60.09) Tampa Bay (63.52) 28-13 [3.43]
Cincinnati (59.48) Pittsburgh (57.32) 13-10 [2.16]
Late
Cleveland (37.35) Denver (104.23) 12-34 [66.88]
Chicago (76.90) Arizona (52.97) 28-13 [23.93]
New York Giants (88.61) Baltimore (65.36) 14-33 [23.25]
Night
San Francisco (105.71) Seattle (88.13) 13-42 [17.58]
Week 17 (Formula: 11-4) (Vegas Favorites: 11-4)
Early
Baltimore () Cincinnati () [BENCH STARTERS]
Philadelphia (30.40) New York Giants (82.27) 7-42 [51.87]
Chicago (77.26) Detroit (45.82) 26-24 [31.44]
Houston (70.80) Indianapolis (41.08) 16-28 [29.72]
Cleveland (39.15) Pittsburgh (58.64) 10-24 [19.49]
Tampa Bay (59.01) Atlanta (75.89) 22-17 [16.88]
Jacksonville (20.98) Tennessee (37.64) 20-38 [16.66]
Carolina (81.61) New Orleans (65.90) 44-38 [15.71]
New York Jets (55.32) Buffalo (41.55) 9-28 [13.77]
Late
Kansas City (16.52) Denver (100.65) 3-38 [84.13]
Arizona (49.84) San Francisco (104.46) 13-27 [54.62]
Miami (54.78) New England (91.67) 0-28 [36.89]
St. Louis (65.01) Seattle (95.85) 13-20 [30.84]
Oakland (32.25) San Diego (55.10) 21-24 [22.85]
Green Bay (87.43) Minnesota (72.99) 34-37 [14.44]
Night
Dallas (62.86) Washington (69.89) 18-28 [7.03]
Week 5 -1
Week 6 +1
Week 7 -5
Week 8 0
Week 9 +1
Week 10 +2
Week 11 0
Week 12 -1
Week 13 +2
Week 14 +3
Week 15 +2
Week 16 +1
Week 17 0
Total +5
Week 5 9-5
Week 6 6-8
Week 7 6-7
Week 8 8-6
Week 9 11-3
Week 10 10-3-1
Week 11 13-1
Week 12 10-6
Week 13 11-5
Week 14 13-3
Week 15 11-5
Week 16 11-5
Week 17 11-4
Total 130-61-1 (67.96%)
1) 105.57 San Francisco 49ers
2) 96.20 Seattle Seahawks
3) 94.70 Denver Broncos
4) 91.65 New England Patriots
5) 87.77 Green Bay Packers
6) 85.78 Baltimore Ravens
7) 80.11 Atlanta Falcons
10) 71.97 Minnesota Vikings
11) 70.95 Washington Redskins
13) 66.94 Houston Texans
25) 43.93 Indianapolis Colts
8) 78.70 New York Giants
9) 78.42 Carolina Panthers
12) 70.00 Chicago Bears
14) 65.86 New Orleans Saints
15) 61.23 St. Louis Rams
17) 59.79 Dallas Cowboys
18) 59.68 Pittsburgh Steelers
19) 59.23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20) 53.66 Miami Dolphins
21) 52.11 San Diego Chargers
22) 49.48 New York Jets
23) 47.57 Arizona Cardinals
24) 45.29 Detroit Lions
26) 43.08 Buffalo Bills
27) 38.25 Cleveland Browns
28) 37.39 Tennessee Titans
29) 33.22 Oakland Raiders
30) 28.88 Philadelphia Eagles
31) 18.05 Jacksonville Jaguars
32) 16.78 Kansas City Chiefs
Thursday
Tampa Bay (46.91) Minnesota (61.36) 36-17 [14.45]
Early
Jacksonville (31.18) Green Bay (99.57) 15-24 [68.39]
Seattle (80.58) Detroit (43.26) 24-28 [37.32]
Atlanta (75.18) Philadelphia (46.84) 30-17 [28.34]
New England (83.83) St. Louis (59.30) 45-7 [24.53]
Miami (55.61) New York Jets (77.26) 30-9 [21.65]
Washington (75.18) Pittsburgh (55.52) 12-27 [19.66]
San Diego (45.72) Cleveland (32.01) 6-7 [13.71]
Carolina (78.03) Chicago (65.52) 22-23 [12.51]
Indianapolis (41.75) Tennessee (29.92) 19-13 (OT) [11.83]
Late
Oakland (37.04) Kansas City (22.13) 26-16 [14.91]
New York Giants (83.20) Dallas (68.42) 29-24 [14.78]
Night
New Orleans (54.77) Denver (117.59) 14-34 [62.82]
Monday
San Francisco (98.07) Arizona (54.25) 24-3 [43.82]
Week 9 (Formula: 11-3) (Vegas Favorites: 10-4)
Thursday
Kansas City (16.92) San Diego (46.43) 13-31 [29.51]
Early
Denver (119.65) Cincinnati (46.27) 31-23 [73.38]
Buffalo (40.71) Houston (91.62) 9-21 [50.91]
Arizona (53.22) Green Bay (87.35) 17-31 [34.13]
Chicago (66.67) Tennessee (34.26) 51-20 [32.41]
Miami (62.94) Indianapolis (37.22) 20-23 [25.72]
Baltimore (58.67) Cleveland (34.34) 25-15 [24.33]
Carolina (79.46) Washington (64.21) 21-13 [15.25]
Detroit (45.14) Jacksonville (31.47) 31-14 [13.67]
Late
Minnesota (51.14) Seattle (76.99) 20-30 [25.85]
Pittsburgh (63.15) New York Giants (79.74) 24-20 [16.59]
Tampa Bay (54.64) Oakland (44.63) 42-32 [10.01]
Night
Dallas (80.36) Atlanta (78.75) 13-19 [1.61]
Monday
Philadelphia (46.78) New Orleans (59.37) 13-28 [12.59]
Week 10 (Formula: 10-3-1) (Vegas Favorites: 8-5-1)
Thursday
Indianapolis (38.80) Jacksonville (25.65) 27-10 [13.15]
Early
Buffalo (39.96) New England (84.60) 31-37 [44.64]
New York Giants (82.95) Cincinnati (45.46) 13-31 [37.49]
Denver (117.07) Carolina (91.71) 36-14 [25.36]
Tennessee (33.33) Miami (56.91) 37-3 [23.58]
Oakland (38.23) Baltimore (55.79) 20-55 [17.56]
San Diego (42.34) Tampa Bay (57.99) 24-34 [15.65]
Atlanta (75.55) New Orleans (63.78) 27-31 [11.77]
Detroit (46.27) Minnesota (51.62) 24-34 [5.35]
Late
St. Louis (54.31) San Francisco (96.21) 24-24 (OT) [41.90]
Dallas (79.87) Philadelphia (38.63) 38-23 [41.24]
New York Jets (69.79) Seattle (82.64) 7-28 [12.85]
Night
Houston (90.44) Chicago (73.38) 13-6 [17.06]
Monday
Kansas City (15.08) Pittsburgh (64.04) 13-16 (OT) [48.96]
Week 11 (Formula: 13-1) (Vegas Favorites: 13-1)
Thursday
Miami (45.16) Buffalo (46.07) 14-19 [0.91]
Early
Jacksonville (22.00) Houston (92.69) 37-43 (OT) [70.69]
Cleveland (32.07) Dallas (81.27) 20-23 (OT) [49.20]
Green Bay (92.40) Detroit (43.85) 24-20 [48.55]
Cincinnati (53.98) Kansas City (21.01) 28-6 [32.97]
Tampa Bay (62.86) Carolina (89.65) 27-21 (OT) [26.79]
Arizona (48.70) Atlanta (72.49) 19-23 [23.79]
Philadelphia (34.57) Washington (58.04) 6-31 [23.47]
New York Jets (60.82) St. Louis (59.99) 27-13 [0.83]
Late
San Diego (43.85) Denver (116.75) 23-30 [72.90]
Indianapolis (41.25) New England (85.42) 24-59 [44.17]
New Orleans (65.90) Oakland (34.81) 38-17 [31.09]
Night
Baltimore (57.43) Pittsburgh (56.80) 13-10 [0.63]
Monday
Chicago (70.54) San Francisco (89.92) 7-32 [19.38]
Week 12 (Formula: 10-6) (Vegas Favorites: 11-5)
Thursday
Houston (80.22) Detroit (48.59) 34-31 (OT)
Washington (60.69) Dallas (71.24) 38-31
New England (85.35) New York Jets (65.75) 49-19
Early
Pittsburgh (60.62) Cleveland (34.55) 14-20
Denver (114.86) Kansas City (18.60) 17-9
Oakland (31.51) Cincinnati (56.49) 10-34
Buffalo (48.56) Indianapolis (40.62) 13-20
Tennessee (40.66) Jacksonville (26.34) 19-24
Minnesota (62.23) Chicago (69.45) 10-28
Atlanta (67.16) Tampa Bay (64.46) 24-23
Seattle (86.64) Miami (43.28) 21-24
Late
San Francisco (94.50) New Orleans (64.94) 31-21
St. Louis (55.24) Arizona (51.36) 21-17
Baltimore (59.14) San Diego (47.02) 16-13 (OT)
Night
Green Bay (88.34) New York Giants (75.72) 38-10
Monday
Carolina (89.14) Philadelphia (31.08) 30-22
Week 13 (Formula: 11-5) (Vegas Favorites: 9-7)
Thursday
New Orleans (64.63) Atlanta (66.30) 13-23 [1.67]
Early
New England (84.50) Miami (47.87) 23-16 [36.63]
Indianapolis (45.61) Detroit (52.58) 35-33 [6.97]
Houston (75.12) Tennessee (39.31) 24-10 [35.81]
Jacksonville (28.61) Buffalo (43.39) 18-34 [14.78]
Minnesota (61.72) Green Bay (82.86) 14-23 [21.14]
Seattle (82.62) Chicago (78.93) 23-17 (OT) [3.69]
Arizona (45.04) New York Jets (65.49) 6-7 [20.45]
San Francisco (96.62) St. Louis (58.59) 13-16 (OT) [38.03]
Carolina (86.98) Kansas City (18.39) 21-27 [68.59]
Late
Pittsburgh (57.34) Baltimore (59.47) 23-20 [2.13]
Cincinnati (57.42) San Diego (50.29) 20-13 [7.13]
Cleveland (39.71) Oakland (28.62) 20-17 [11.09]
Tampa Bay (66.61) Denver (103.67) 23-31 [37.06]
Night
Philadelphia (29.03) Dallas (66.33) 33-38 [37.30]
Monday
New York Giants (85.21) Washington (66.60) 16-17 [18.61]
Week 14 (Formula: 13-3) (Vegas Favorites: 10-6)
Thursday
Denver (106.55) Oakland (29.65) 26-13 [76.90]
Early
New York Jets (63.71) Jacksonville (25.63) 17-10 [38.08]
Philadelphia (31.44) Tampa Bay (67.95) 23-21 [36.51]
Chicago (78.13) Minnesota (58.62) 14-21 [19.51]
St. Louis (64.14) Buffalo (45.99) 15-13 [18.15]
Kansas City (22.83) Cleveland (38.58) 7-30 [15.75]
Tennessee (37.95) Indianapolis (45.03) 23-27 [7.08]
Atlanta (68.39) Carolina (75.15) 20-30 [6.76]
Baltimore (62.30) Washington (68.86) 28-31 (OT) [6.56]
San Diego (47.90) Pittsburgh (61.47) 34-24 [13.57]
Dallas (61.20) Cincinnati (60.70) 20-19 [0.50]
Late
Miami (53.17) San Francisco (94.73) 13-27 [41.56]
Arizona (48.08) Seattle (85.69) 0-58 [37.61]
New Orleans (62.40) New York Giants (85.33) 27-52 [22.93]
Night
Detroit (52.60) Green Bay (85.76) 20-27 [33.16]
Monday
Houston (72.29) New England (91.31) 14-42 [19.02]
Week 15 (Formula: 11-5) (Vegas Favorites: 9-7)
Thursday
Cincinnati (61.63) Philadelphia (33.86) 34-13 [27.77]
Early
Denver (98.86) Baltimore (64.08) 34-17 [34.78]
Indianapolis (44.06) Houston (74.50) 17-28 [30.44]
Jacksonville (23.05) Miami (53.37) 3-24 [30.32]
Washington (70.98) Cleveland (40.89) 38-21 [30.09]
New York Giants (88.11) Atlanta (66.16) 0-34 [21.95]
Green Bay (84.23) Chicago (74.55) 21-13 [9.68]
Tampa Bay (64.63) New Orleans (60.02) 0-41 [4.61]
Minnesota (63.71) St. Louis (62.76) 36-22 [0.95]
Late
Seattle (84.48) Buffalo (46.34) 50-17 [38.14]
Carolina (80.36) San Diego (52.96) 31-7 [27.40]
Kansas City (20.18) Oakland (29.86) 0-15 [9.68]
Pittsburgh (57.10) Dallas (61.84) 24-27 (OT) [4.74]
Detroit (50.77) Arizona (46.45) 10-38 [4.32]
Night
San Francisco (94.97) New England (98.59) 41-34 [3.62]
Monday
New York Jets (63.12) Tennessee (36.24) 10-14 [26.88]
Week 16 (Formula: 11-5) (Vegas Favorites: 10-6)
Saturday
Atlanta (77.38) Detroit (46.22) 31-18 [31.16]
Early
New England (98.93) Jacksonville (20.96) 23-16 [77.97]
Oakland (33.17) Carolina (84.04) 6-17 [50.87]
Tennessee (37.50) Green Bay (87.19) 7-55 [49.69]
Washington (72.01) Philadelphia (32.52) 27-20 [39.49]
Indianapolis (42.26) Kansas City (17.68) 20-13 [24.58]
Buffalo (45.23) Miami (53.90) 10-24 [8.67]
Minnesota (64.70) Houston (72.95) 23-6 [8.25]
San Diego (52.13) New York Jets (60.04) 27-17 [7.91]
New Orleans (68.48) Dallas (63.69) 34-31 (OT) [4.79]
St. Louis (60.09) Tampa Bay (63.52) 28-13 [3.43]
Cincinnati (59.48) Pittsburgh (57.32) 13-10 [2.16]
Late
Cleveland (37.35) Denver (104.23) 12-34 [66.88]
Chicago (76.90) Arizona (52.97) 28-13 [23.93]
New York Giants (88.61) Baltimore (65.36) 14-33 [23.25]
Night
San Francisco (105.71) Seattle (88.13) 13-42 [17.58]
Week 17 (Formula: 11-4) (Vegas Favorites: 11-4)
Early
Baltimore () Cincinnati () [BENCH STARTERS]
Philadelphia (30.40) New York Giants (82.27) 7-42 [51.87]
Chicago (77.26) Detroit (45.82) 26-24 [31.44]
Houston (70.80) Indianapolis (41.08) 16-28 [29.72]
Cleveland (39.15) Pittsburgh (58.64) 10-24 [19.49]
Tampa Bay (59.01) Atlanta (75.89) 22-17 [16.88]
Jacksonville (20.98) Tennessee (37.64) 20-38 [16.66]
Carolina (81.61) New Orleans (65.90) 44-38 [15.71]
New York Jets (55.32) Buffalo (41.55) 9-28 [13.77]
Late
Kansas City (16.52) Denver (100.65) 3-38 [84.13]
Arizona (49.84) San Francisco (104.46) 13-27 [54.62]
Miami (54.78) New England (91.67) 0-28 [36.89]
St. Louis (65.01) Seattle (95.85) 13-20 [30.84]
Oakland (32.25) San Diego (55.10) 21-24 [22.85]
Green Bay (87.43) Minnesota (72.99) 34-37 [14.44]
Night
Dallas (62.86) Washington (69.89) 18-28 [7.03]
Here's what the numbers look like week to week, compare to Vegas.
Week 5 -1
Week 6 +1
Week 7 -5
Week 8 0
Week 9 +1
Week 10 +2
Week 11 0
Week 12 -1
Week 13 +2
Week 14 +3
Week 15 +2
Week 16 +1
Week 17 0
Total +5
As you can see, only 3 of the 13 weeks was the formula worse at predicting games than Vegas. 2 of those weeks came in the first 3 weeks the formula was active.
Here's a look at weekly formula records and the final record for the year.
Week 5 9-5
Week 6 6-8
Week 7 6-7
Week 8 8-6
Week 9 11-3
Week 10 10-3-1
Week 11 13-1
Week 12 10-6
Week 13 11-5
Week 14 13-3
Week 15 11-5
Week 16 11-5
Week 17 11-4
Total 130-61-1 (67.96%)
Now 67.96% might not seem like a significant number, but to put 67.96% in perspective, it's a higher percentage than any of the CBS Sports's 9 NFL writers' predictions (including their Prediction Machine.) Plus, you know, Vegas. For some reason, CBS is the only site that hasn't taken down their 2012 predictions. Everyone else cleared their hands, or I'd list them, too. More than likely, I will be using this as my own "Prediction Machine" for the 2013 season. All the numbers are live, so after every set of games the entire league can totally flip upside-down. For example, a Thursday night game going opposite of the formula's prediction can swing favorites for games on Sunday, which neither team has yet to face.
For those about to ask if it correlates to the playoffs, it does. It correctly guessed the wild card games, then every non-Raven game from then on out. The Ravens were the playoffs version of the regular season Colts, beating the formula.
For what it's worth, this is the end of the season "Power Rankings". In bold are the playoff teams:
1) 105.57 San Francisco 49ers
2) 96.20 Seattle Seahawks
3) 94.70 Denver Broncos
4) 91.65 New England Patriots
5) 87.77 Green Bay Packers
6) 85.78 Baltimore Ravens
7) 80.11 Atlanta Falcons
8) 78.70 New York Giants
9) 78.42 Carolina Panthers
10) 71.97 Minnesota Vikings
11) 70.95 Washington Redskins
12) 70.00 Chicago Bears
13) 66.94 Houston Texans
14) 65.86 New Orleans Saints
15) 61.23 St. Louis Rams
16) 60.78 Cincinnati Bengals
17) 59.79 Dallas Cowboys
18) 59.68 Pittsburgh Steelers
19) 59.23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20) 53.66 Miami Dolphins
21) 52.11 San Diego Chargers
22) 49.48 New York Jets
23) 47.57 Arizona Cardinals
24) 45.29 Detroit Lions
25) 43.93 Indianapolis Colts
26) 43.08 Buffalo Bills
27) 38.25 Cleveland Browns
28) 37.39 Tennessee Titans
29) 33.22 Oakland Raiders
30) 28.88 Philadelphia Eagles
31) 18.05 Jacksonville Jaguars
32) 16.78 Kansas City Chiefs
Playoff Teams:
2) 96.20 Seattle Seahawks
3) 94.70 Denver Broncos
4) 91.65 New England Patriots
5) 87.77 Green Bay Packers
6) 85.78 Baltimore Ravens
7) 80.11 Atlanta Falcons
10) 71.97 Minnesota Vikings
11) 70.95 Washington Redskins
13) 66.94 Houston Texans
25) 43.93 Indianapolis Colts
Non-Playoff Teams:
9) 78.42 Carolina Panthers
12) 70.00 Chicago Bears
14) 65.86 New Orleans Saints
15) 61.23 St. Louis Rams
17) 59.79 Dallas Cowboys
18) 59.68 Pittsburgh Steelers
19) 59.23 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
20) 53.66 Miami Dolphins
21) 52.11 San Diego Chargers
22) 49.48 New York Jets
23) 47.57 Arizona Cardinals
24) 45.29 Detroit Lions
26) 43.08 Buffalo Bills
27) 38.25 Cleveland Browns
28) 37.39 Tennessee Titans
29) 33.22 Oakland Raiders
30) 28.88 Philadelphia Eagles
31) 18.05 Jacksonville Jaguars
32) 16.78 Kansas City Chiefs
I'll most likely play with these numbers over the off-season, so keep an eye out for another article or two on the subject.
All of time-slot info was found on The506.com, all of the Vegas info was found on FootballLocks.com, and all the results of games were found on ESPN.Go.Com. If it wasn't for those three sites I wouldn't have been able to go through with this project. A special thanks to them is due.
Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.com, DraftFalcons.com, Packers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com
You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda
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