2012 Formula vs the Spread

Yesterday, I posted week by week results of predictions based on my formula. In 2012, the formula would have had a straight up record of 130-61-1 or about 68%. That's slightly above the Vegas numbers, but it's hard to put each individual game on an even field, as each game has drastically different betting odds.

So, I decided to run with my numbers again. This time, only "upsets" picked by my formula. Basically, if the formula had a team favored, but Vegas had them as an underdog, they qualified for this list. Hypothetically, if I would have bet on teams favored in my formula, these would have been the results:

Week 5 (1-2)

[New England by 6] Denver (113.83) New England (71.74) 21-31

[New Orleans by 3.5] San Diego (37.37) New Orleans (22.02) 24-31

[Carolina by 2] Seattle (75.78) Carolina (62.83) 16-12

Week 6 (3-0)
[Pick-em] Denver (87.86) San Diego (32.97) 35-24

[Miami by 5.5] St. Louis (63.27) Miami (58.24) 14-17

[Houston by 4] Green Bay (71.48) Houston (69.77) 42-24

Week 7 (2-3-1)
[Minnesota by 7] Arizona (66.66) Minnesota (48.06) 14-21

[New Orleans by 1.5] New Orleans (42.75) Tampa Bay (58.75) 35-28

[San Francisco by 8] Seattle (94.23) San Francisco (89.75) 6-13

[Dallas by 2.5] Dallas (75.33) Carolina (78.75) 19-14

[Pittsburgh by 1.5] Pittsburgh (45.24) Cincinnati (48.17) 24-17

[Oakland by 6] Jacksonville (33.63) Oakland (31.30) 23-26 (OT)

Week 8 (4-2)
[Detroit by 2.5] Seattle (80.58) Detroit (43.26) 24-28
[Philadelphia by 3] Atlanta (75.18) Philadelphia (46.84) 30-17
[Pittsburgh by 4.5] Washington (75.18) Pittsburgh (55.52) 12-27
[Kansas City by 1] Oakland (37.04) Kansas City (22.13) 26-16
[Chicago by 7] Carolina (78.03) Chicago (65.52) 22-23
[Tennessee by 3.5] Indianapolis (41.75) Tennessee (29.92) 19-13 (OT)

Week 9 (2-1)
[Washington by 3] Carolina (79.46) Washington (64.21) 21-13
[Oakland by 1.5] Tampa Bay (54.64) Oakland (44.63) 42-32
[Atlanta by 4] Dallas (80.36) Atlanta (78.75) 13-19

Week 10 (2-0)
[Chicago by 1] Houston (90.44) Chicago (73.38) 13-6
[Detroit by 3] Detroit (46.27) Minnesota (51.62) 24-34

Week 11 (1-1)
[Tampa Bay by 1] Tampa Bay (62.86) Carolina (89.65) 27-21 (OT)
[St. Louis by 3.5] New York Jets (60.82) St. Louis (59.99) 27-13

Week 12 (1-2)
[Indianapolis by 2] Buffalo (48.56) Indianapolis (40.62) 13-20
[Arizona by 1.5] St. Louis (55.24) Arizona (51.36) 21-17
[New York by 3] Green Bay (88.34) New York Giants (75.72) 10-38

Week 13 (2-0)
[Pick-Em] Cincinnati (57.42) San Diego (50.29) 20-13
[Chicago by 2] Seattle (82.62) Chicago (78.93) 23-17 (OT)

Week 14 (3-0)
[Buffalo by 3.5] St. Louis (64.14) Buffalo (45.99) 15-13
[Atlanta by 3.5] Atlanta (68.39) Carolina (75.15) 20-30
[Cincinnati by 3] Dallas (61.20) Cincinnati (60.70) 20-19

Week 15 (4-2)
[Cleveland by 4] Washington (70.98) Cleveland (40.89) 38-21
[San Diego by 3] Carolina (80.36) San Diego (52.96) 31-7
[Atlanta by 1] New York Giants (88.11) Atlanta (66.16) 0-34
[Pittsburgh by 2] Pittsburgh (57.10) Dallas (61.84) 24-27 (OT)
[New Orleans by 3.5] Tampa Bay (64.63) New Orleans (60.02) 0-41
[St. Louis 2.5] Minnesota (63.71) St. Louis (62.76) 36-22

Week 16 (2-1)
[Seattle by 2.5] San Francisco (105.71) Seattle (88.13) 13-42
[Dallas by 3] New Orleans (68.48) Dallas (63.69) 34-31 (OT)
[Pittsburgh by 3] Cincinnati (59.48) Pittsburgh (57.32) 13-10

Week 17 (1-1)
[New Orleans by 4.5] Carolina (81.61) New Orleans (65.90) 44-38
[Buffalo by 3.5] New York Jets (55.32) Buffalo (41.55) 9-28

Results:

Week 5 (1-2)
Week 6 (3-0)
Week 7 (2-3-1)
Week 8 (4-2)
Week 9 (2-1)
Week 10 (2-0)
Week 11 (1-1)
Week 12 (1-2)
Week 13 (2-0)
Week 14 (3-0)
Week 15 (4-2)
Week 16 (2-1)
Week 17 (1-1)
Total (28-15-1)

That's around 65%. Anything about 52.4% is profit in sports betting, and most professional gamblers hit between 55-58%. There might me more to this formula than I first thought.

Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.com, DraftFalcons.com, Packers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda