Tuesday, May 21, 2013

A.J. McCarron's Passing Chart

by Justis Mosqueda

One of the best ways to scout (or grade) quarterbacks is using a passing chart. A passing chart is used to separate the outcomes of passes in certain areas, by a quarterback. Instead of giving you a flat completion percentage, a passing chart will tell you exactly where a guy completes most of his passes, and where he comes up short.

The chart is broken up into four rows: passes where the ball goes more than 20 yards, passes where the ball goes between 11-19 yards, passes where the ball goes 0-10 yards, and passes where the ball is thrown behind the line of scrimmage. There are also three columns: left of the hash marks, between the hash marks, and right of the hash marks. This allows passes to be separated into twelve different possibilities that the chart could focus on.

To chart A.J. McCarron's passes I used videos off of DraftBreakdown.com. I passed up on the Western Kentucky game (because they aren't a BCS opponent), but I did manage to chart McCarron against Notre Dame, Texas A&M, LSU, and Georgia. Arguably the best competition he faced all year.

I did take out throw-away passes and spikes out of consideration when I was making his chart, so they aren't included.

Here are the results:

When I tallied up the results I got this combined chart:

As you can see, McCarron is much better on the right side of the field, using the sideline well like I stated in my early scouting repot on him (which you can find here: http://packers-backer.blogspot.com/2013/05/quick-thoughts-on-aj-mccarron-qb-alabama.html). The further down-field and left the ball gets, the less accurate he is, except deep, when passes are usually made due to blown coverages.

To refine the numbers a little more, I added competition percentage (color coated, warm=good, cool=bad, grey=medium) and yards per attempt, in each category:

Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student that writes for DraftFalcons.comPackers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

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