Close Games: Overrated and Underrated 2012 Teams

by Justis Mosqueda

KEY:

Actual Wins: How many games a team actually won in a given year.

Decisive Wins: Wins by seven or more points.

Decisive Losses: Losses by seven or more points.

Close Games: A game within six or fewer points.

Average Wins: How many games a team won if you weight games as so:

Decisive Wins: 1

Close Games: .5

Decisive Losses: 0

The Theory

Too many times, the narrative in football is that good teams win close games. This simply isn't true. By in large, if a team wins many more close games than they lose, the team isn't as good as its record. They got lucky. Records will lie to you.

A large majority of teams have a close game win percentage of roughly 50%. How large is the majority? Between 2008-2012 only 30 teams have had their Actual Wins within two wins of their "Average Win" total. That means 81.25% of teams over five years fit the narrative that close games are about 50/50 shots.

To go more in-depth with Average Win, I'm going to give an example:

Let's say the Houston Oilers start off the season like this:

Loss by 2

Loss by 4

Loss by 1

Loss by 1

Loss by 1

That leaves them with an actual record of 0-5, even though they only lost by a combined 10 points. Since I have found there is a value in close losses, I combined close wins and close losses, making them count as Close Games instead of Win/Loss like traditional win percentage.

Houston Oilers
Actual Win: 0

Average Win: 2.5 (5 close games x .5)

Difference: 2.5 

Difference is simple, think of it as |Actual Win-Average Win|. It's the distance between Actual Win and Average Win.

If the Oilers kept this trend going, they'd qualify as one of the 18.75% of outliers which got either extremely lucky or unlucky by having a difference of two or more. Of the 26 teams between 2008-2011 (can't use 2012 data because I don't know their 2013 records), you will find a striking revelation.

Here are the "overrated teams" of 2008-2012. These are teams that won two or more games over their Average Wins. Only two teams (2008 Indianapolis Colts and 2010 New Orleans Saints) improved their record the next season. 2012 teams that qualified as "overrated" are the Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, and Atlanta Falcons.

Here are the "underrated teams" of 2008-2012. Only the 2011 Philadelphia Eagles had a worse record the year after they lost two or more games than their Average Wins suggested. The 2012 Carolina Panthers qualified for this list.

So, although it's a small sample size, only 3 of 26 teams that qualified for the overrated/underrated lists were incorrectly projected to improve/decline the next season. Out of those 3, 2 of them barely qualified with a difference of two. Only the Indianapolis Colts of 2008 disregard the narrative at all.

Why does this trend happen? Well, one reason is the penalties the NFL has against teams which perform well. If you win games, you get a lower draft pick, and you're scheduled against teams that finished in the same spot in their division in your same conference. If you were the 4th best team in the NFC South, but you ended up winning the conference, you play all the teams that won NFC conferences the next year. Already with an inflated record, you can't keep up with those good teams, leading to more losses.

If you are betting man, my advice would be to not bet on the Colts, Texans, or Falcons to improve, or the Panthers to decline, in 2013.

Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.com, DraftFalcons.com, Packers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

Update: 2014 QB Prospects Passing Charts (now includes combined chart)

by Justis Mosqueda

Since the 2013 NFL Draft closed, I've been taking a look at the senior quarterback prospects for the 2014 NFL Draft. While studying them, I've charted their passes (even posting some on my Twitter account). I figured I should share my charts with the scouting world so I could compare and contrast with other draftniks. Without further ado, here's the link to 36 passing charts: http://www.mediafire.com/?afeqwplx2al2plk

UPDATE: The excel doc now includes combined passing charts. (ex: screen-shots below)

The excel document includes these charts (all from 2012 games):

Jeff Mathews (Cornell): Yale

Stephen Morris (Miami): North Carolina State, and Duke

David Fales (San Jose State): Stanford, Louisiana Tech, Bowling Green, and BYU

Zach Mettenberger (LSU): Alabama, Clemson, and Washington

Tajh Boyd (Clemson): North Carolina State, Georgia Tech, Duke, Florida State, LSU, and South Carolina

Bryn Renner (North Carolina): Duke, Maryland, and Miami

A.J. McCarron (Alabama): Georgia, LSU, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Western Kentucky, and Tennessee

Derek Carr (Fresno State): Boise State, SMU, and Oregon

Aaron Murray (Georgia): Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, and Florida

Logan Thomas (Virginia Tech): Georgia Tech

All of these cutups can be found at DraftBreakdown.com, if you wish to compare passing charts.

Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.com, DraftFalcons.com, Packers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

2014 QB Prospects Passing Charts

by Justis Mosqueda

Since the 2013 NFL Draft closed, I've been taking a look at the senior quarterback prospects for the 2014 NFL Draft. While studying them, I've charted their passes (even posting some on my Twitter account). I figured I should share my charts with the scouting world so I could compare and contrast with other draftniks. Without further ado, here's the link to 36 passing charts: http://www.mediafire.com/?rb6k30d7k5wir02

The excel document includes:

Jeff Mathews (Cornell): Yale

Stephen Morris (Miami): North Carolina State, and Duke

David Fales (San Jose State): Stanford, Louisiana Tech, Bowling Green, and BYU

Zach Mettenberger (LSU): Alabama, Clemson, and Washington

Tajh Boyd (Clemson): North Carolina State, Georgia Tech, Duke, Florida State, LSU, and South Carolina

Bryn Renner (North Carolina): Duke, Maryland, and Miami

A.J. McCarron (Alabama): Georgia, LSU, Mississippi State, Notre Dame, Texas A&M, Western Kentucky, and Tennessee

Derek Carr (Fresno State): Boise State, SMU, and Oregon

Aaron Murray (Georgia): Alabama, Tennessee, Auburn, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech, and Florida

Logan Thomas (Virginia Tech): Georgia Tech

All of these cutups can be found at DraftBreakdown.com, if you wish to compare passing charts.

Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.com, DraftFalcons.com, Packers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

Bishop signs with Vikings, Super Bowl Starters Still on the Packers Roster Drops to 50%

by Justis Mosqueda

Today, it was announced that Desmond Bishop - the former-Packers linebacker - has signed with the Minnesota Vikings, less than three years removed from his 2010 breakout season. After Nick Barnett went down in Week 1, Bishop ran with his opportunity in the starting role for the first time. The Packers won the Super Bowl that season, and Bishop received a four year extension in the off-season. He did well in 2011, but he tore his hamstring, badly, in 2012, which forced him to sit out the year on IR.

With Bishop's departure, the Packers only return 11 of their 22 Super Bowl starters for the 2013 season. Among those the Packers lost are:

Greg Jennings WR-Jenning played two more years with the Packers, before leaving for Minnesota this off-season. He signed a five year contract worth 47.5 million dollars with the Vikings. He never reproduced the career numbers he had in 2010.

Donald Driver WR-Like Jennings, Driver, a fan-favorite, played two more years with the Packers. Unlike Jennings, though, Driver has retired from football. During his statue ceremony, he stated he would be welcome to returning to the Packers, but won't sign on with any other team, although they have offered. His 41 passes caught during the 2011 and 2012 season were fewer than any amount he's posted in a single season between 2002 and 2010.

Chad Clifton LT-Clifton played another year with the Packers, before failing a physical before the 2012, resulting in his contract's termination.

Daryn Colledge LG-After 2010, Colledge signed a five year deal with the Cardinals. The deal is reportedly near 30 million dollars.

Scott Wells C-Wells played one more season with the Packers. He signed with the Rams last season, for a four year 24 million dollar contract. In Week 1 of 2012, he broke his foot and was IR'd the rest of the season.

Cullen Jenkins DE-Jenkins signed to Philadelphia after the 2010 season. The deal was worth 25 million over five years. In 2012 he was asked to restructure, and in 2013 he was cut from the team. He's now a member of the New York Giants.

Howard Green DE-Green, who was signed mid-way through the season, played another year with the Packers. He hasn't played a down since they let him go after the 2011 season.

Frank Zombo OLB-Zombo's been a backup linebacker with the Packers until this off-season, when he signed with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Charles Woodson CB-After some nagging injuries, and a move from starting corner to safety/nickel-corner, the Packers cut Charles Woodson. Woodson signed to Oakland this off-season, where he started his NFL career.

Nick Collins FS-After three straight Pro-Bowls, Collins suffered a neck injury in early 2011. The injury eventually lead to his release; he hasn't played a down since.

Even with 11 returning starters from the Super Bowl team, there's no promise that number won't significantly drop after the 2013 season. Look at the contracts:

Aaron Rodgers QB-2020 free agent

James Starks RB-2014 free agent

Jordy Nelson WR-2015 free agent

James Jones WR-2014 free agent

Bryan Bulaga LT-2015 free agent

Josh Sitton LG-2017 free agent

Ryan Pickett DE-2014 free agent

B.J. Raji NT-2014 free agent

Clay Matthews OLB-2019 free agent

A.J. Hawk ILB-2016 free agent

Tramon Williams CB-2015 free agent

With Starks, Jones, Pickett, and Raji coming off the books, it's possible the Packers only return 32% of their Super Bowl starters in 2014. 

Starks, alone, could dip the percentage under half this season. The running back corp is stronger with the addition of rookies Eddie Lacy and Johnathan Franklin. DuJuan Harris would have been the 2013 starter had no running back been drafted, and Alex Green seems to be ahead of Starks on the depth chart. Lump all that in with the draft rumors that the Packers were shopping Starks (along with Bishop, which obviously came into fruition), it seems like Starks will be gone by the start of September.

Whether or not Starks leaves in 2013 or 2014, it's no wonder why the Packers are consistently ranked among the youngest teams in the NFL, year in and year out. Ted Thompson would rather let a guy off with a year in the tank, than have to pay him when he's got nothing left. The franchise is the poster boy for the draft and develop model of building a team. You play well? You get paid. No money's wasted on elderly free agents. If you really want to keep someone from your roster, you can with that saved money.

Fans have an emotional connect with Bishop. We haven't seen him become a shell of himself, like we've seen Woodson. Bishop was playing good football, then he was hurt, then we cut him, and now someone picked him up, quickly. Thompson wouldn't just let someone walk out the door, if he tought having them there would improve his football team. For whatever reason, the team is committed to Brad Jones, and so am I.

#InTedWeTrust

Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.com, DraftFalcons.com, Packers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

Updated 2014 Senior Quarterback Rankings: 6/24/13

by Justis Mosqueda

1. Jeff Mathews, Cornell [early 1st round grade]

2. Stephen Morris, Miami (Florida) [mid-late 1st round grade]

3. David Fales, San Jose State [mid-late 1st round grade]

4. Tajh Boyd, Clemson [early Day 2 grade]

5. Zach Mettenberger, LSU [Day 2 grade]

6. Bryn Renner, North Carolina [Day 2 grade]

7. A.J. McCarron, Alabama [early Day 3 grade]

8. Derek Carr, Fresno State [Day 3 grade]

9. Aaron Murray, Georgia [Day 3 grade]

10. Logan Thomas, Virginia Tech (QB/ATH/TE) [Day 3 grade]

Under the radar senior: Drew Allen, Syracuse

Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.com, DraftFalcons.com, Packers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

An Interesting Play LSU/Mettenberger ran vs Alabama

by Justis Mosqueda

LSU came out in 11 personnel in a shotgun formation, with the tight end and running back both to the right side of the quarterback. Alabama matched LSU's three wide receivers with three corner backs. Alabama's nickel included two high safeties on 2nd and 8.

Here's a look at the field from behind Mettenberger, including the offense's play. The guards cut the interior defensive lineman, while the center and right tackle go straight to the two linebackers. The defensive end on top of the tight end is the "read man". So, the tight end ignores him and goes to the corner, still on the right side of the formation, although there are no receivers. Essentially, if the blocks are performed correctly and Mettenberger makes the right option, the closest person that should make the tackle should be the high safety or the backside defensive end.

Here, the cuts are finished, and the rest of the blockers are moving to second level blocks. Highlighted to the left is the backside defensive end, and to the right is the read man.

With the read man sticking to Mettenberger, he pitches the ball to his running back. The ball was too high, which resulted in an out of bounds fumble, but it was interesting, nonetheless, that Mettenberger ran an option play against Alabama. I wonder if we are going to see less of this type of offense with Cam Cameron joining LSU.

Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for OptimumScouting.com, DraftFalcons.com, Packers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

Packers Positional Combine Measurables: Defense and Special Teams

by Justis Mosqueda

It's the off-season, and things are quiet, so I decided to make a spreadsheet of all the players the Thompson-Era Packers have selected, for the purposes of possibly finding draft tendencies.

Here is a link for the first half of the project which focuses on the offensive side of the ball: http://packers-backer.blogspot.com/2013/06/packers-positional-combine-measurables.html

I highlighted the "worst" measurables (slowest times, shortest, lightest, lower jump numbers) in red and the "best" measurables in blue. I also included pro day numbers if the player hadn't performed the drill at the combine. The numbers with the black boarders around them are pro day numbers.

I also only included the 2009-Present front seven, because in 2009 the Packers switched from a 4-3 defense to a 3-4 defense.

Defensive End

Nose Tackle

Outside Linebacker

Inside Linebacker

Cornerback

Safety

Special Teams

All workout numbers came from NFLDraftScout.com

Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for DraftFalcons.com, Packers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

Packers Positional Combine Measurables: Offense

by Justis Mosqueda

It's the off-season, and things are quiet, so I decided to make a spreadsheet of all the players the Thompson-Era Packers have selected, for the purposes of possibly finding draft tendencies. Here is the first half of the project featuring the offense. The defense and special teams half should be up soon after.

I highlighted the "worst" measurables (slowest times, shortest, lightest, lower jump numbers) in red and the "best" measurables in blue. I also included pro day numbers if the player hadn't performed the drill at the combine. The numbers with the black boarders around them are pro day numbers.

Quarterback

Running Back

Wide Receiver

Tight End

Tackle

Guard

Center

All workout numbers came from NFLDraftScout.com

Update-the defensive half of the article can be found here:
http://packers-backer.blogspot.com/2013/06/packers-positional-combine-measurables_12.html

Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student who writes for DraftFalcons.com, Packers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda

Derek Carr (QB Fresno State) Pre-2013 Scouting Report

by Justis Mosqueda

Derek Carr is most likely going to be the last senior quarterback I'm going to do in this series. I either have a lack of film or a lack of interest in the rest of the seniors in this class. What's interesting about Carr, to me, is that people have him ranked all over the place. Some have him higher than Fales (ranking Fales as low as a 5th rounder) and some have him lower than guys like Zach Mettenberger (who I think is a late round pick unless he makes a big jump in 2013.) There's so many varying opinions in this year's class, that it's hard to project where guys will actually go.

Carr plays a lot like his older brother, David, the first pick in Houston Texans history. Another comparable player that's currently playing in the NFL is Jay Cutler. This doesn't just mean all the good traits, though. Carr is a gun-slinger by definition. He's got a big arm, but rarely uses it. Actually, it's an interesting dynamic. Carr's biggest plus, based on my opinion and from what I've heard, is his arm, but he throws deeper than 10 yards less than McCarron, Boyd, Fales, or Murray.

Here are the passing charts I made for reference:

The way his offense is designed is very horizontal. He actually had the least amount of passes in the 11-19 range and the 20+ range; plus, he threw more to the right than any other quarterback I scouted. Derek Carr's offense very much makes him a "system QB", but not in a way that it truly takes advantage of his pluses. I hope I can see more of his deep ball in 2013.

His biggest flaw has to be how he reacts to the rush. When Carr sees the rush, he focuses and loses all footwork and mechanical principles.

Take this play for example:

Derek is set up to throw into the endzone while a rusher is loose and coming at him. Carr has ~4/5 yards before he has to throw the ball.

Carr gets the ball out before he get hit, but he goes back to avoid all contact with the rusher. He throws in a fade-away type motion and the ball doesn't get to the wide receiver in stride, allowing the defensive back to help breakup the pass in the endzone. I aligned the first photo of Carr with the second. See how far back he fades to throw, when he should be stepping up or planting his foot in the dirt to pass?

He really does play like his brother in that aspect, but that's what ended up ruining his NFL career. Carr needs to step up more and dart back less. Sometimes, he ends up taking a 15+ yard sack when he could have stepped up to make a pass. I understand that Fresno State's line isn't stocked with blue chip linemen, but he's playing in the shotgun every snap and should at least have some pocket presence. He throws passes off his back foot in a fade-away motion to avoid any and all contact. If he learns to step up into passes he could also improve his arm strength.

Outside of arm strength, I really don't see a part of his game that sticks out to me. He's got good size. He reads defenses okay, but you have to take into account of the system. He's accurate enough to make it to the next level, but he probably wants to improve there. He's not a great athlete, but he's "functionally mobile". Nothing else really stands out. To me, he's a in the McCarron/Boyd group of 3rd-5th round quarterback prospects.

Justis Mosqueda's current 2013 quarterback rankings:

1 David Fales San Jose State 1st Round grade

2 A.J. McCarron Alabama Late Day 2/Day 3 grade

3 Tajh Boyd Clemson Late Day 2/Day 3 grade

4 Derek Carr Fresno State Late Day 2/Day 3 grade

5 Aaron Murray Georgia Day 3 grade
6 Logan Thomas Virginia Tech Day 3 grade

Justis Mosqueda is a Journalism student that writes for DraftFalcons.com, Packers-Backer.blogspot.com, and cuts videos of NFL Draft prospects for DraftBreakdown.com

You can follow Justis on Twitter: Twitter.com/justismosqueda